Of all drugs to be released in 2015, the melanoma drug Opdivo (nivolumab) is expected to have the brightest future, according to a report from Thomson Reuters.
With sales forecast to reach nearly $5.7 billion by 2019, Opdivo is at the head of a large 2015 “blockbuster” drug class. Opdivo is followed by a pair of drugs for the cardiovascular system: Praluent (alirocumab) for hypercholesterolemia with projected sales of $4.4 billion and LCZ-696 (sacubitril and valsartan) for chronic heart failure with projected 2019 sales of $3.7 billion, Thomson Reuters said.
With estimated sales of $2.8 billion, the breast cancer drug Ibrance (palbociclib) is the second oncologic drug making the blockbuster list, with the first noncancer or non-CV drug – lumacaftor plus ivacaftor for cystic fibrosis – rounding out the top five with projected sales of $2.7 billion by 2019.
Next comes Viekira Pak (veruprevir, ritonavir, ombitasvir, and dasabuvir), a hepatitis C virus drug with estimated 2019 sales of $2.5 billion, followed by the hypercholesterolemia/hyperlipidemia drug evolocumab, with projected sales of $1.9 billion. This $2.5-billion disparity between evolocumab and Praluent may be explained by Praluent’s arrival on the market a month sooner, and also because Praluent had a reduced rate of cardiac death, heart attack, and stroke in a phase III trial, a point likely to be relevant to most patients, according to the report.
Overall, 11 drugs are expected to reach $1 billion in sales by 2019, many more than the three blockbusters predicted from the 2014 stock of drugs. However, the two highest-selling new drugs from 2014, Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) and Harvoni (sofosbuvir plus ledipasvir) – both HCV drugs – are each predicted to reach sales of over $10 billion by 2017, far exceeding anything from 2015, the report said.
The Thomson Reuters Market Insight Report used data collected from 2013 through early February 2015.